Navigating the Federal AI Landscape: Roadmaps, Strategies, and Opportunity for Vendors
AI adoption across the U.S. Federal Government is accelerating, bringing new priorities, funding opportunities and buying pathways. Stay competitive by understanding where agencies are investing in AI, how they plan to buy it and what vendors need to know to align with current government requirements.
Webinar recording from March 24, 2026
Quantum Sensing Market Overview
Quantum sensing is post feasibility but pre-scale. The market is moving from RDT&E into transition activity, characterized by operationally relevant testing, platform integration pilots, and limited early procurements rather than broad programs of record. Progress toward production is gated less by performance claims than by repeatability in operational environments, SWaP-C (Size, Weight, Power, and Cost) and environmental qualification, integration burden (hardware and software), and a credible sustainment path. As a result, the near-term market is defined by funded validation and transition efforts that precede wider production adoption. Platform manufacturers including UAV and UUV OEMs typically engage as downstream adopters once government-funded programs have materially reduced integration and performance risk.
Funding Uncertainty, Clear Opportunity: Navigating the FY 26 Federal Budget Maze
The headlines are all about gridlock: the Senate racing to pass a three-bill “minibus,” the House waiting for the green light, and another short-term continuing resolution (CR) keeping the lights on only through January 30. It’s tempting to read this as a signal for technology companies to pause their government efforts.
That would be a mistake.
While Washington wrestles over process, the underlying mission priorities driving government IT, cybersecurity, and AI investments haven’t changed. Agencies are still under binding mandates from Zero Trust and post-quantum encryption to AI governance and data modernization that require continued action regardless of the budget dance on Capitol Hill.
At Marion Square, we see this as one of the best times to be positioning for growth.
Navigating Government Shutdowns: A Contractor’s Guide with Marion Square
When Congress fails to pass funding legislation, the federal government officially shuts down. For federal contractors, a shutdown introduces a period of significant uncertainty, affecting ongoing projects, payment schedules, and future business opportunities.
FY26 is Around the Corner: Why Tech Companies Need to Act Now to Win in Government
The federal government’s FY26 budget cycle begins October 1st, and agencies are already shaping acquisition plans. Billions are being directed toward AI, cybersecurity, post-quantum readiness, infrastructure, and defense making this one of the largest opportunities yet for technology companies
Whether you’re already working with federal agencies or just starting to explore the market, the message is clear: the time to act is now.
The Federal Government Is Spending-Here’s How to Position for FY26 Funding Now
If you're in AI, cybersecurity, infrastructure, or defense tech and still sitting on the sidelines of the federal market, now is the time to move. A recent Financial Times article called attention to the surge of interest and investment in defense tech start-ups. But the trend goes far beyond drones and weapons systems. It’s a signal that the U.S. government is actively buying, planning, and modernizing and the window for engaging in FY 26 is already open.
FY26 Budget Status: What You Need to Know
As of July 21, 2025, the federal Fiscal Year 2026 budget has not been fully passed. While both chambers of Congress have made substantial progress on individual appropriations bills, the complete budget package awaits final approval. FY2026 officially began on October 1, 2025, creating pressure for lawmakers to finalize funding or resort to temporary measures.
SWIFT Is Here: What DoD’s New Software Acquisition Model Means for Vendors – And How to Win
One of the most important developments in recent years arrives this week: the Department of Defense's formal launch of SWIFT the Software-Initiated Fast Track.
Backed by the Office of the DoD CIO and spearheaded by Katie Arrington, SWIFT is designed to radically accelerate the acquisition and deployment of commercial software across the Department. More than a program, SWIFT represents a shift in philosophy – one that software companies must understand and adapt to if they want to stay competitive in defense.
Market Update: Artificial Intelligence
Marion Square is continually researching Government initiatives and programs to identify key opportunities for our clients. For those organizations that are focused on providing AI algorithms, infrastructure, and services an interesting, potential opportunity for FY 25 is the Dept of Energy’s (DOE) -Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence for Science, Security, and Technology- or FASST initiative.
Market Update: Insider Threat
At Marion Square, our Market Research Analysts are continually following current and upcoming federal spending trends. Cybersecurity is always on our watchlist due to the critical need and continual update and modernization requirements. Insider threat is one we have seen recently pick up again (in recent years, the Government has been spending mostly O&M dollars on Insider Threat).
When to Expect Your First Federal Contract
A question we at Marion Square get asked often is “when can I expect my first Government sale to close?”. This answer to this question has many ‘depends on’ factors, but overall, the realistic expectation to closing your first Government sale could be anywhere from 6-18 months (or more) once you’ve executed your sales plan. The Federal sales process is more complex than the commercial sales process, leading to a longer closing timeframe.
Government Industry Days - A Front Row Seat to New Opportunities
Our clients are always looking for new ways to get in front of potential Government customers and meeting new teaming partners. One of our primary recommendations is to participate in Government hosted Industry Days. Industry Days are typically held by a specific Program Management Office (PMO) soliciting and gathering vital information for an upcoming Request for Proposal (RFP).
The Rise and Importance of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT)
According to market analysis the space is large, around $7B today, and is expected to grow at 28% CAGR annually thru 2030 when the market will be approximately $36B. Global Open Source Intelligence Market Size $36,241.2Mn 2030 (custommarketinsights.com) Law Enforcement followed by Government Intelligence Agencies and Defense Intelligence Agencies are by far the largest customers for OSINT technologies.
How the Federal Government is Shaping the Standards for Quantum
You are going to hear more and more about Quantum in the coming months and years, more specifically mandates and orders regarding Quantum and Post Quantum Encryption. The latest estimates are that a viable Quantum Computer which can crack the current encryption algorithms (RSA, Elliptical Curve, Diffie Hellam) could be less than 10 years away and with transition times (from existing solutions to Post Quantum and Quantum solutions) estimated at between 5 and 7 years the Federal government is beginning to take notice of the risks Quantum Computers pose to national security.
Determining your Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Government - IQT Webinar Recap
Late last year, I had the opportunity to participate in an In-Q-Tel (IQT) webinar and present the concept and value of determining the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Government to IQT portfolio companies. In the commercial space, the TAM is everyone/every organization that a company could potentially sell to, the TAM we at Marion Square have developed for Government, takes this to a more detailed level. Since Government agencies are strictly confined by their budget cycles and certification requirements (think FedRAMP) we believe organizations should take these items into consideration when developing their TAM.
Launching Emerging Technologies in the Federal Government (eBook)
Organizations with innovative emerging technologies should have a strategy for working with the Federal Government. Government contracts are a great way to not only access non-dilutive funding to help with product development but saying you are working with the Federal Government provides credibility for your technology in commercial markets.
The Importance of B2G Market Research
In discussions with many of our client and prospect we are are constantly asked "What is the best practice for launching a Government sales program (B2G)?" Is it hiring the right sales rep? Is it getting a GSA schedule or other contract vehicle? Is it signing up the right reseller? While all of these activities play a vital role in the ultimate success of B2G program in our opinion the most important activity to invest in from the start is your market research!!